The perpetual support by Chinese to Russians during the incumbent long tenor war with Ukraine, Neutral Stance by Russians & Chinese over Iranian deep state activities in the Middle East, reaffirmed legitimacy to North Korea by Chinese & Russians and last but not the least the current Iranian President’s visit to Islamabad inspite the hard skirmishes and flash points between them at borders, each of these events shouldn’t be taken as being mutually exclusive ones. The cost of such assumptions could be highly fatal for the global order.
We should not be in denial any longer.
PRICK has arrived on the world stage as a formidable entity. Some of its leverages are as follows:
1. China is not only buying 40,% of Russian oil to prop up the Russian economy, it is supplying engines for Russian drones. optical equipment, dual use chips, propellants and other equipment - all in the glorious spirit of Military-Civilian Fusion (MCF).
2. North Korea’s ammunition supplies and low cost Iranian drones like Shahid, etc have contributed meaningfully to Russian military resurgence and carrying the war of attrition.
3. Iran’s resurgence as a military power has been enabled by co-operation within the Axis, from hypersonic technologies to cruise knowhow.
4. In terms of aggregate military arsenals the grouping enjoys a 4:1 advantage over the West.
5. BRICS, starting with just 5 has grown to 10 with 47 additional applicants knocking on the doors.
6. PRICK has far better Leadership Leverage in the Global South than the West. Maldives, Solomon Islands, Central & Western African nations to name few.
7. The group sits on significant nuclear stockpiles too. The problem isn’t the quantity but the intent and the extent of irrationality they can pursue. Countering irrationality with rationality is a tough job.
8. The deep states of Pakistan & Iran (Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah ) are something over which RC could leverage upon. The benefit with such deep states are that the pain inflicted upon them by the West gets distributed and the benefits they enjoy are highly centralised.
9. China - grinding with its current real estate failure, stock market volatility, capital flight and increasing restlessness of Xi Jingping with respect to South China Sea and Taiwan, these factors are enough to alert ourselves for a very near possible flash point in the Indian Ocean region. INDIA primarily can’t be complacent given the fact of the recent events happened in its Western & Eastern flanks. If you don’t study for your exams, your tendency is that none of your near ones study as well.
10. The proponents of PRICK ranks higher over west on fronts of perception wars. Transnational institutions are by very design such that they won’t utter sympathy unless inflicted ones are from EU or extended arms of USA. ( point to note is that ISRAEL lost even then too.)
11. USA’s sphere of concern is rising way above its sphere of influence. PRICK formation adds onto it. Trump’s return might yet again turn entire focus of USA to look inwards, an indirect boost to PRICK and low morale for EU led western group.
Though, it’s harder than ever to traverse over the tight rope of diplomacy, yet there’s a silver lining in it. The need of reforms is much higher, both in Institutions and thoughts :
We should take the same path as taken by PRICK- to consolidate their voices in unison - whether it’s SCO or BRICS. Acceptance of formidable powers like INDIA, BRAZIL, GERMANY into the P5 will surely act as a stabiliser force.
Acceptance of the fact that SANCTIONS applied eventually takes them closer to adversaries like China and North Korea. Discussion and Diplomacy should NEVER be off the table.
3. Global agreement on the definition of TERRORISM.
Disarmament of Nuclear Stockpiles in a graded manner led by USA,FRANCE, CHINA and RUSSIA. No ted talk on these. Walk the talk.
Comprehensive redressal of insecurities. and doubts over NATO’s eastward plan by EU+USA to RUSSIA.
Onboarding IRAN and SAUDI to ensure peaceful MIDDLEEAST.
Two nation theory for ISRAEL-PALESTINE conflict resolution.This won’t bear fruits unless the above 1-6 points are adhered in sequential manner. Else it will again be a fertile ground to spread radicalisation.
The entire world should come out of COLD WAR hang over which had earlier forged tight alliances and rather accept the realities of multilateralism.
Before arriving at the abidance of RULES BASED ORDER, need to reframe those RULES in tune with the present reality and avoid any kind of nanny statist attitude by the WEST.
10. At last, INDIA should PLAY to its best - the game of changing diplomacy, keeping its self interest at the core, without letting its soil turn into PLAYGROUND for others. DO NOT FALL INTO THUCYDIDES TRAP. Engage USA, manage CHINA, cultivate EUROPE, reassure RUSSIA, bring JAPAN into play, draw NEIGHBOURS, extend NEIGHBOURHOOD and expand traditional consistencies of support.
Rightly articulated by our ancient genius THIRUVALLUVAR in his poem: “DIPLOMACY is the articulation according to the need of the time with profound knowledge and without fear”. Therefore, it may be too hasty as of now to decide who’ll come victorious after this tumultuous time is over, but one thing is for sure, there are huge possibilities for the courageous and convicted ones.
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